The UK doors and windows industry is expected to grow by almost 16 per cent by 2029, as tighter energy efficiency rules, housing targets and rising demand for security products reshape the market. Barbour ABI, the construction data specialist, said the sector is forecast to expand by 15.83 per cent over the period. It estimated the market would be worth £638m at manufacturers’ selling prices in 2025.
The analysis points to a modest recovery at first, with all market sectors expected to post annual growth of about 2 per cent in 2026. From 2027, however, growth is forecast to accelerate as activity increases in both new housing and retrofit work.
Barbour ABI said efforts to meet housing targets would help drive demand, while a rise in retrofit projects linked to tighter energy efficiency regulations would provide a further boost. Together, those pressures are expected to increase demand across the industry and support higher-value products.
Security and smart technology are identified as two of the main drivers of future growth. According to the report, demand for higher security standards is increasing, alongside interest in smart access systems and electronic locking products.
That is expected to encourage more product innovation and raise the overall value of the market in the coming years.
Ed Griffiths, head of business and client analytics at Barbour ABI, said the market was continuing to evolve as security requirements, regulation and technology played a bigger role in product specification. He said the sector remained “highly competitive and reliant on international supply chains”, but added that there was “clear momentum in higher-value segments, particularly in security and electronic access solutions”.
Griffiths said door hardware remained the largest part of the sector, reflecting both the complexity of modern systems and the importance of security in residential and commercial buildings. He added that technological innovation and changing building standards were creating opportunities for suppliers able to offer more integrated and higher-specification products.
Barbour ABI found that locks are the single largest product category, accounting for about 45 per cent of total market value. It said this reflected the cost and complexity of modern locking systems, including multi-point locks and newer smart security products.
The report also highlights the industry’s dependence on imports. Import values continue to far exceed exports, underlining the extent to which the UK relies on overseas suppliers to meet demand. Barbour ABI noted that many UK “manufacturers” operate production facilities abroad.
In 2024, imports from the EU totalled £137.9m, while imports from non-EU countries reached £189m. That compared with exports of £56.6m to EU markets and £35.3m to non-EU markets.
The report identifies Swedish group Assa Abloy as the industry’s largest player. The company owns brands including Yale and Union and has a strong presence in the UK market alongside its wider position in global access control systems. Its acquisitions of Arran Isle, including Mila and Carlisle Brass, in 2022, and Caldwell UK, later integrated into Yale in 2023, have further strengthened that position.
Why This Matters: The forecasts are encouraging for the UK fenestration sector. The assumptions are logical and align with trends in mainland Europe, where adoption of smart locking and access systems has grown. That was backed up by the high volume of smart locking products on display at the recent Fensterbau exhibition.
The second assumption is also rational, given the increased housebuilding targets set by the current UK Government. But it is important not to overstate the case.
First, uptake of smart locking in the UK remains slow, with installers dragging their heels over incorporating it into their customer offering. Concerns over complexity and the risk of failure remain barriers. Second, housebuilding targets are only targets, and so far they have not been met for a host of reasons.
