INTELLIGENCE: Glazing Today Market Prediction Report 2026

Britain’s window and door industry is heading into 2026 at an awkward crossroads. A market worth an estimated £3.5–4 billion in early 2025 is being pulled in three directions at once: towards tighter net zero regulation, towards more digitally enabled and design-driven homes, and back towards price sensitivity as households and developers wrestle with higher borrowing and construction costs. The result is likely to be only moderate topline growth over the next 12–18 months, but accompanied by sharp shifts in market share between those fabricators and installers that embrace the transition – and those that do not.

Energy efficiency and sustainability look set to define the next phase. Policy moves, including the Future Homes Standard and local planning guidance, are accelerating demand for high-performance glazing, solar integration and triple-glazed systems. Energy-efficient products are forecast to grow at an annual rate of just over 7 per cent through 2026, outpacing the broader market. Homeowners, meanwhile, are increasingly factoring embodied carbon and material provenance into purchasing decisions, driving a pivot towards recycled aluminium, certified timber and lower-impact components. Businesses that can credibly badge products as “green” stand to capture premium pricing and, in some cases, double-digit revenue growth, even as smaller firms struggle with the upfront cost of retooling supply chains.

Material substitution will add to the sense of disruption. Aluminium is steadily gaining ground on PVC-U, helped by its durability, slim sightlines and suitability for larger apertures in both residential and commercial schemes. PVC-U fabricators are already seeing double-digit declines in 2025, and the report suggests that companies that diversify into aluminium could lift their commercial order books by around a fifth over the next year. At the same time, composite and PVC doors are set for solid mid-single-digit growth, supported by their relative affordability and broad appeal in mainstream housing.

Technology will be another fault line in 2026. Smart locks, connected sensors and automated openings are moving from niche upgrades to expected features, with smart options now present in an estimated six in ten new installations. Installers that partner with tech providers and invest in training can widen margins and differentiate on service, but the capability gap between mid-sized, better capitalised firms and smaller traders is likely to grow. Behind the scenes, adoption of digital tools – from take-off software to online configurators – promises efficiency gains of up to 20 per cent, a tempting prospect in a market where price competition remains fierce.

Regulation and compliance will weigh heavily. Tougher rules on fire safety, egress and structural performance will push up costs and may clip margins by as much as 10 per cent for some operators. Yet firms that secure certification and build regulatory advice into their customer offer could benefit from a flight to quality, particularly in public sector and volume housebuilding work.

Taken together, these forces point to a fenestration market in 2026 that is larger but more polarised. Growth will be concentrated in energy-efficient, sustainability-credentialed, aluminium-rich and smart-enabled product ranges, while undifferentiated PVC-U and purely price-led offerings risk stagnation. For management teams, the strategic choice is sharpening: invest in greener materials, compliance expertise and digital capability – or accept a slow slide into the commoditised, low-margin end of the trade.

THE GLAZING TODAY 2026 UK MARKET PREDICTION REPORT:

The UK fenestration industry, encompassing windows, doors, and related glazing products, is undergoing a transition driven by sustainability demands, regulatory pressures, and technological advancements. As of early 2025, the market is valued at approximately £3.5-4 billion, with projections for moderate growth amid economic challenges like rising costs and supply chain disruptions. Consumer purchasing behavior is increasingly influenced by energy efficiency, aesthetics, and digital integration, while trade supply trends focus on material shifts and innovation. Glazing Today researcher Chloe Grant has identified the top 10 trends based on recent data, followed by their impacts, strategies, and risk assessments.

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Top 10 Trends Driving Purchasing Behavior

1. Sustainability and Eco-Friendly Materials: Consumers are prioritising recycled aluminium, sustainably sourced timber, and low-impact materials, driven by environmental awareness and government incentives for green building. Industry reports highlight a shift towards these in 2025, with 70% of homeowners considering sustainability in purchases. X posts criticize non-sustainable trends like grey plastic frames, signaling backlash against outdated practices.
   Impact on Small/Mid-Sized Businesses: Positive for differentiation, but requires supply chain investments; over 12 months, firms adopting this could see 10-15% revenue growth from premium pricing, though smaller ones risk margin squeezes from higher material costs. 
2. Energy Efficiency and Carbon Reduction: Demand for energy-efficient windows and doors is surging, fueled by rising energy bills and regulations like the Future Homes Standard, with new builds increasingly incorporating solar panels and triple glazing. Market data shows a 7.2% CAGR for energy-efficient products through 2026.
   Impact: Opportunities for installers to upsell, but mid-sized manufacturers may face compliance costs; expect 5-10% market share gains for compliant firms, with laggards losing contracts in the next year.
3. Shift to Aluminium from PVC-U: Aluminium is gaining traction for its durability and modern appeal, with PVCu fabricators declining by 10-15% in 2025. X discussions emphasize aluminium’s role in diversification.
   Impact: Small businesses can expand product lines for growth, but retooling costs could strain finances; over 12 months, adopters may capture 20% more commercial projects, while PVC-U dependent firms see stagnation.
4. Smart Home Technology Integration: Homeowners seek smart locks, automated windows, and IoT-enabled hardware, with reports noting a rise in smart features in 60% of new installations. LinkedIn posts highlight this as a key 2025 trend.
   Impact: Mid-sized installers can partner with tech firms for added value, boosting margins by 15%; however, training and integration challenges may delay adoption for smaller players.
5. Innovative Hardware and Security Features: Trends include matte finishes, UV-protective coatings, and enhanced security, with consumer reports showing 50% prioritizing hardware in decisions.
   Impact: Opportunities for customization, but supply volatility could increase costs; firms embracing this may see 10% sales uplift in residential segments within a year.
6. Digital Tools and Software Adoption: Installers are using PDF takeoff software and digital platforms for efficiency, with market overviews stressing digital engagement as a priority.
   Impact: Small businesses can reduce errors and speed up quotes, improving competitiveness; expect 20% efficiency gains, but initial tech investments may burden cash flow.
7. Colour and Aesthetic Trends: Matte blacks, greys, and bold palettes are popular, though criticized for poor quality signals; reports track rising demand in UK/Ireland.
   Impact: Allows for premium pricing in aesthetics-driven markets, but trend volatility risks inventory issues; mid-sized firms could gain 5-10% in consumer sales.
8. Regulatory Compliance and Safety Standards: New regs on window sizes, safety bars, and fire ratings are reshaping designs, with X posts highlighting burdens like high costs for approvals.
   Impact: Increases compliance costs, potentially reducing margins by 10%; smaller installers may lose bids if non-compliant, but certified firms secure government projects.
9. Growth in Composite and PVC Doors: Composite doors market grows at 6.5% CAGR, driven by durability and affordability, with PVC-U doors projected to reach £1.5-2 billion by 2033.
   Impact: Affordable entry for small manufacturers, with 5-8% growth potential; however, competition from imports could pressure prices.
10. Consumer Focus on Value Amid Cost Pressures: Budget constraints lead to value-driven purchases, with reports noting frustrations over costs and a leaner market.
    Impact: Pushes businesses towards cost-effective solutions, risking commoditization; mid-sized firms may see steady trade volume but need to avoid price wars.

Proposed Strategies to Capitalize on Trends

1. Supply Chain Adjustments for Sustainable and Aluminium Materials: Partner with UK-based suppliers for recycled aluminium and eco-materials to reduce import dependencies, while stocking energy-efficient components. This leverages trends 1-3 and 9 by offering certified green products.
   Risks: Supply disruptions or higher upfront costs could strain liquidity.
   Mitigation: Diversify suppliers and secure long-term contracts; conduct quarterly audits to monitor costs and quality.
2. Marketing Approaches Emphasising Smart and Digital Features: Launch targeted digital campaigns on platforms like X and LinkedIn, showcasing smart hardware demos and software tools via videos and webinars, to attract tech-savvy consumers. This capitalizes on trends 4-6 and 10 by highlighting value through efficiency gains.
   Risks: Low ROI if campaigns fail to convert, or data privacy issues from digital tools.
   Mitigation: Use analytics to track engagement and A/B test ads; ensure GDPR compliance with clear opt-in policies and third-party audits.
3. Customer Engagement Tactics via Personalised Consultations: Offer virtual consultations and regional workshops on regulatory compliance, aesthetics, and energy savings, using consumer data from reports to tailor recommendations. This addresses trends 2, 7, 8, and 10 by building trust and upselling.
   Risks: Over-reliance on personalization could lead to data breaches or inconsistent service quality.
   Mitigation: Train staff uniformly and implement secure CRM systems; gather feedback post-engagement to refine approaches.